All the portents from the recent Madrid Conference on climate change point to an impending and inevitable disaster, if the wealthiest and largest nations of the world do not drastically reduce their carbon emissions over the next five years. Because at present dismal levels of performance, the globe is on target to warm at three times 1.5 degree Celsius, the level essential to preserve life as we know it.
Small island nations no longer have helpless sidelines to stand on. The great polluters – China, India and the United States – have exited Spain, the follow-on from the Paris Accord, without being held to account for missing earlier targets, and without the higher and firmer commitments required to obviate disaster for all.
Absent a different president in the USA next year, that country will exit the compact of nations discussing and monitoring the climate change crisis in a fit of short-sightedness which can seriously compromise those of us who live in the Caribbean Basin. In turn, given the rabid competition in areas of trade and influence between the two 21st Century superpowers, the Chinese are unlikely to go “green” unless America reciprocates.
A visitor attends the COP25 climate talks summit in Madrid, Spain, Thursday, December 12, 2019. (AP Photo/Manu Fernandez)
Never before in history has the game of Russian roulette between the competing goals of development and conservation been played out so widely, and for such high stakes. And, we have begun to suffer the consequences even before many of us are aware of the gravity of the problem.
What else explains the subtle shifts of the seasons in Jamaica? Who can any longer confidently predict the duration of the dry seasons, or count on regular rains in May and October? How else is the region experiencing previously unheard-of category five hurricanes so often?
A justifiable wail of helplessness has been heard from especially vulnerable nations, first at Paris and now at Madrid. Regrettably, righteous indignation will never trump national self-interest, particularly in a world where individualism reigns supreme, and principles of common cause are heavily diluted.
The best options are for regions like the Caribbean to seek, together, to punch higher than our weight in world forums so as to influence global action. The issue of climate change was not given the prominence it deserves at the recent African, Caribbean and Pacific summit which our prime minister attended. What is the action plan?
It is the poorest nations of the world who will bear the worst ravages of unmanageable droughts, floods and temperature spikes. Were Michael Manley still with us, he would doubtless spearhead a robust South-South initiative on global warming. That approach is still timely.
Many aspects of the Jamaican economy are extremely vulnerable. With sea levels rising inevitably higher by several metres within the next 20 years, what is the prudence, safety and economy of hotels being built right near the water’s edge, let alone rooms constructed over the water?
There needs to be a concerted effort to relocate the thousands who live on gully banks, landslide-prone hillsides and in low-lying coastal zones. The near-dead squatter unit in the Ministry of Housing is required to present a plan for safer housing solutions so as to forestall the huge loss of life and production, which will ensue one day. We can look carefully at Bolivia’s reportedly successful effort to become almost entirely food secure during the next decade in an era when climate change in all its aspects will certainly cause rising food prices.
More useful than anything else would be an intentional effort to raise public consciousness about environmental matters, not in desperation and fear, but in thoughtful activism as to what we can do individually and collectively to avert the deluge.
The writing is on the wall.
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